TGM's two-stage DCF values Macy's, Inc. (M) between $15.15 and $24.96 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$25.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.4% | $15.15 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.4% | $18.67 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.4% | $24.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.22 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$25.40
Market-Implied Growth
+8.5%/yr
vs -2.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.15 – $24.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for M (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $540.0M · 0.26B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.67
-26.5% vs $25.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | $22.41 | $23.79 | $25.36 | $27.18 | $29.30 |
| 10.4% | $19.38 | $20.42 | $21.59 | $22.92 | $24.44 |
| 11.4% | $16.96 | $17.77 | $18.67 | $19.68 | $20.81 |
| 12.4% | $14.98 | $15.63 | $16.34 | $17.12 | $17.99 |
| 13.4% | $13.33 | $13.86 | $14.43 | $15.06 | $15.74 |
