LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) between $96.40 and $204.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $132.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$55.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -11.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $96.40 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $132.87 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $204.18 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $100.20 | |
Current Price
$55.73
Market-Implied Growth
-11.8%/yr
vs +9.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$96.40 – $204.18
model output — not a price target
LYB DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LYB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.32B shares · net debt $11.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$129.87
+133.0% vs $55.73
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $186 | $209 | $239 | $281 | $343 |
| 6.5% | $142 | $155 | $171 | $191 | $219 |
| 7.5% | $112 | $120 | $130 | $142 | $156 |
| 8.5% | $91.02 | $96.39 | $103 | $110 | $119 |
| 9.5% | $75.17 | $78.92 | $83.20 | $88.14 | $93.91 |
About LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V., established in 2009 and based in Houston, Texas, operates as a prominent global chemical manufacturer with a significant international footprint, including the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, and the Netherlands. The company's diverse operations are organized into six distinct segments. Its core business involves the production and marketing of olefins and various polyolefins, such as high, low, and linear low-density polyethylene, along with polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers, for markets spanning the Americas, Europe, and Asia. LyondellBasell also focuses on intermediate chemicals and derivatives, offering products like propylene oxide, oxyfuels, styrene monomers, acetyls, and ethylene-based compounds. Furthermore, the company develops and sells advanced polymer solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders. Its activities extend to refining crude oil into gasoline and distillates, as well as the development and licensing of chemical and polyolefin process technologies, alongside the manufacturing and sale of polyolefin catalysts.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Chemicals
- CEO
- Peter Z. E. Vanacker