A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$52.99 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 8.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 7.5% | $7.09 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 6.5% | $22.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$52.99
Market-Implied Growth
+31.3%/yr
vs +8.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $168.9M · 0.14B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.09
-86.6% vs $52.99
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $52.99; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $17.80 | $23.61 | $31.34 | $42.17 | $58.40 |
| 6.5% | $8.34 | $11.83 | $16.18 | $21.77 | $29.21 |
| 7.5% | $2.05 | $4.35 | $7.09 | $10.45 | $14.64 |
| 8.5% | N/A | N/A | $1.05 | $3.25 | $5.90 |
| 9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $0.09 |
