Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$45.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.1%/yr | 8.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 10.1%/yr | 7.5% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 13.1%/yr | 6.5% | $5.22 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $97.23 | |
Current Price
$45.06
Market-Implied Growth
+38.7%/yr
vs +7.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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LW DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $118.1M · 0.14B shares · net debt $4.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$2.64
-94.1% vs $45.06
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $45.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $14.75 | $19.68 | $26.27 | $35.49 | $49.31 |
| 6.5% | $5.12 | $7.94 | $11.47 | $16.00 | $22.05 |
| 7.5% | — | $0.51 | $2.64 | $5.23 | $8.47 |
| 8.5% | — | — | — | — | $0.37 |
| 9.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- CEO
- Michael Jared Smith