TGM's two-stage DCF values Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) between $48.33 and $100.68 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $71.00. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$43.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.2% | $48.33 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.2% | $71.00 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.2% | $100.68 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $63.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$43.77
Market-Implied Growth
+9.1%/yr
vs +30.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$48.33 – $100.68
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LVS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.65B shares · net debt $12.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$71.00
+62.2% vs $43.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $95.53 | $108 | $123 | $143 | $171 |
| 7.2% | $74.25 | $82.02 | $91.44 | $103 | $118 |
| 8.2% | $59.37 | $64.72 | $71.00 | $78.48 | $87.54 |
| 9.2% | $48.41 | $52.28 | $56.71 | $61.86 | $67.90 |
| 10.2% | $40.00 | $42.90 | $46.18 | $49.90 | $54.18 |
