TGM's two-stage DCF values Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) between $46.21 and $95.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $67.78. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$46.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.3% | $46.21 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.3% | $67.78 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.3% | $95.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $63.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$46.08
Market-Implied Growth
+10.8%/yr
vs +27.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$46.21 – $95.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LVS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.66B shares · net debt $12.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$67.78
+47.1% vs $46.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $46.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $90.90 | $102 | $116 | $135 | $160 |
| 7.3% | $70.89 | $78.19 | $87.00 | $97.85 | $112 |
| 8.3% | $56.82 | $61.87 | $67.78 | $74.81 | $83.28 |
| 9.3% | $46.40 | $50.07 | $54.27 | $59.13 | $64.82 |
| 10.3% | $38.38 | $41.14 | $44.25 | $47.79 | $51.83 |
