Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LSCC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($23.15) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.6%/yr | 12.5% | $14.79 |
| Base case | 7.6%/yr | 11.5% | $18.35 |
| Optimistic | 10.6%/yr | 10.5% | $23.15 |
Current Price
$134.00
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$18.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LSCC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $174.0M · 0.14B shares · net cash $91.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$18.35
-86.3% vs $134.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $134.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $21.29 | $22.36 | $23.59 | $25.00 | $26.65 |
| 10.5% | $18.91 | $19.72 | $20.64 | $21.68 | $22.86 |
| 11.5% | $17.01 | $17.64 | $18.35 | $19.14 | $20.02 |
| 12.5% | $15.45 | $15.96 | $16.52 | $17.13 | $17.81 |
| 13.5% | $14.16 | $14.58 | $15.02 | $15.51 | $16.05 |
