TGM's two-stage DCF values Stride, Inc. (LRN) between $148.99 and $283.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $200.79. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$85.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 8.5% | $148.99 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 7.5% | $200.79 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 6.5% | $283.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $584.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$85.59
Market-Implied Growth
-10.4%/yr
vs +10.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$148.99 – $283.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LRN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $286.1M · 0.04B shares · net cash $336.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$200.79
+134.6% vs $85.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $85.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $260 | $292 | $334 | $394 | $483 |
| 6.5% | $208 | $227 | $251 | $282 | $322 |
| 7.5% | $173 | $186 | $201 | $219 | $242 |
| 8.5% | $148 | $157 | $168 | $180 | $194 |
| 9.5% | $130 | $136 | $144 | $152 | $162 |
