Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT) between $37.75 and $61.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $47.36. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$37.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.8%/yr | 10.5% | $37.75 |
| Base case | 16.8%/yr | 9.5% | $47.36 |
| Optimistic | 19.8%/yr | 8.5% | $61.15 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $42.95 | |
Current Price
$37.94
Market-Implied Growth
+10.3%/yr
vs +6.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$37.75 – $61.15
model output — not a price target
LQDT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LQDT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $50.3M · 0.03B shares · net cash $169.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$73.87
+94.7% vs $37.94
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $37.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $94.18 | $100 | $107 | $116 | $127 |
| 8.5% | $79.05 | $83.07 | $87.76 | $93.30 | $99.95 |
| 9.5% | $67.85 | $70.66 | $73.87 | $77.57 | $81.88 |
| 10.5% | $59.26 | $61.29 | $63.57 | $66.16 | $69.11 |
| 11.5% | $52.49 | $54.00 | $55.67 | $57.54 | $59.64 |
About Liquidity Services, Inc.
Liquidity Services, Inc. delivers comprehensive e-commerce solutions, featuring online marketplaces, self-service auction listing tools, and a variety of support services. The company's operations are structured into four distinct segments: Retail Supply Chain Group, Capital Assets Group, GovDeals, and Machinio. Among its key platforms, liquidation.com empowers corporations to efficiently divest surplus and salvaged consumer goods and retail capital assets. The GovDeals marketplace offers a direct listing service, enabling state and local government agencies, as well as commercial enterprises in the United States and Canada, to sell their own excess and salvaged property. Complementing these, AllSurplus functions as a centralized gateway, uniting a global network of buyers with assets sourced from across all the company's diverse marketplaces. Moreover, Liquidity Services operates marketplaces that facilitate the sale of manufacturing surplus, salvaged capital equipment, and scrap materials for corporations spanning North America, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Africa. Clients can also leverage an extensive suite of services, including inventory surplus management, asset appraisal, sales execution, marketing, returns processing, asset recovery, and broader e-commerce assistance. The company further maintains a global search engine platform dedicated to listings of pre-owned equipment across vital sectors such as construction, machine tools, transportation, printing, and agriculture. Its product offerings are vast, covering industry verticals like consumer electronics, general merchandise, apparel, scientific instruments, aerospace components, technology hardware, real estate, energy apparatus, industrial capital machinery, heavy equipment, fleet and transportation vehicles, and specialized machinery. Established in 1999, Liquidity Services, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- William Paul Angrick