TGM's two-stage DCF values The Lovesac Company (LOVE) between $18.37 and $32.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $24.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.1%/yr | 12.5% | $18.37 |
| Base case | 16.1%/yr | 11.5% | $24.23 |
| Optimistic | 19.1%/yr | 10.5% | $32.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $11.95 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.72
Market-Implied Growth
+5.7%/yr
vs +19.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$18.37 – $32.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LOVE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $21.8M · 0.01B shares · net debt $66.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$24.23
+64.6% vs $14.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $29.26 | $31.11 | $33.21 | $35.64 | $38.47 |
| 10.5% | $25.18 | $26.58 | $28.15 | $29.93 | $31.96 |
| 11.5% | $21.93 | $23.02 | $24.23 | $25.58 | $27.09 |
| 12.5% | $19.28 | $20.15 | $21.10 | $22.15 | $23.32 |
| 13.5% | $17.08 | $17.79 | $18.55 | $19.39 | $20.31 |
