TGM's two-stage DCF values El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) between $9.35 and $18.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $12.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.46 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.6% | $9.35 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.6% | $12.46 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.6% | $18.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $7.53 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.46
Market-Implied Growth
+5.0%/yr
vs -5.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$9.35 – $18.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LOCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $22.4M · 0.03B shares · net debt $61.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.46
-13.8% vs $14.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $16.61 | $18.83 | $21.77 | $25.83 | $31.82 |
| 6.6% | $12.95 | $14.30 | $15.98 | $18.12 | $20.95 |
| 7.6% | $10.49 | $11.39 | $12.46 | $13.76 | $15.38 |
| 8.6% | $8.73 | $9.36 | $10.09 | $10.96 | $11.99 |
| 9.6% | $7.40 | $7.86 | $8.39 | $9.00 | $9.71 |
