TGM's two-stage DCF values Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) between $463.61 and $1,018.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $677.00. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$269.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.3%/yr | 8.5% | $463.61 |
| Base case | 15.3%/yr | 7.5% | $677.00 |
| Optimistic | 18.3%/yr | 6.5% | $1,018.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $973.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$269.95
Market-Implied Growth
-1.7%/yr
vs +15.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$463.61 – $1,018.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LNG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.7B · 0.21B shares · net debt $24.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$677.00
+150.8% vs $269.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $269.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $924 | $1057 | $1235 | $1484 | $1858 |
| 6.5% | $706 | $786 | $886 | $1015 | $1186 |
| 7.5% | $561 | $614 | $677 | $754 | $850 |
| 8.5% | $458 | $495 | $538 | $589 | $649 |
| 9.5% | $381 | $408 | $439 | $475 | $516 |
