Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)'s fair value in a range of $359.72 – $861.03 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $525.61 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $525.61, the market is pricing in roughly +9.4%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -0.7%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$525.61
Fair-Value Range
$359.72 – $861.03
Market-Implied Growth
+9.4%/yr
vs -0.7% 5Y actual
LMT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $6.1B · 0.23B shares · net debt $17.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$359.72
-31.6% vs $525.61
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $525.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $466 | $493 | $526 | $566 | $614 |
| 9.0% | $389 | $408 | $430 | $456 | $486 |
| 10.0% | $331 | $344 | $360 | $377 | $397 |
| 11.0% | $285 | $295 | $306 | $319 | $333 |
| 12.0% | $248 | $256 | $264 | $273 | $283 |
About Lockheed Martin Corporation
Lockheed Martin Corporation stands as a prominent global security and aerospace enterprise, specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle of advanced technological systems. Its expertise spans the research, design, development, manufacturing, integration, and ongoing sustainment of cutting-edge products and services across the world. The company's diverse operations are structured into four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics division is responsible for creating and producing leading-edge combat and air mobility aircraft, alongside unmanned aerial vehicles and their related innovations. The Missiles and Fire Control segment delivers sophisticated air and missile defense systems; tactical and precision air-to-ground weapon systems; comprehensive logistics; advanced fire control; mission operations, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; both crewed and uncrewed ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. Within the Rotary and Mission Systems segment, the portfolio includes military and commercial helicopters, naval surface ships, land and sea-based missile defense systems, advanced radar technologies, maritime and airborne mission and combat systems, intricate command and control solutions, cybersecurity services, and simulation and training platforms. The Space division focuses on satellites, space transportation systems, strategic, advanced strike, and defensive missile systems, as well as classified systems and services vital for national security. This segment further enhances situational awareness through network enablement, integrating space and ground-based systems to empower customers in gathering, analyzing, and securely distributing crucial intelligence data. Lockheed Martin primarily serves the United States government, alongside fulfilling foreign military sales facilitated through U.S. government contracts. Established in 1912, the corporation maintains its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- James D. Taiclet Jr.