TGM's two-stage DCF values Lennox International Inc. (LII) between $135.76 and $262.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $188.10. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$441.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.0%/yr | 10.9% | $135.76 |
| Base case | 4.0%/yr | 9.9% | $188.10 |
| Optimistic | 7.0%/yr | 8.9% | $262.08 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $365.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$441.94
Market-Implied Growth
+22.4%/yr
vs +1.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$135.76 – $262.08
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LII (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $562.4M · 0.03B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$188.10
-57.4% vs $441.94
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $441.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $235 | $254 | $277 | $305 | $339 |
| 8.9% | $196 | $210 | $226 | $244 | $266 |
| 9.9% | $166 | $176 | $188 | $201 | $217 |
| 10.9% | $143 | $151 | $160 | $169 | $181 |
| 11.9% | $124 | $130 | $137 | $145 | $153 |
