Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LIF
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($9.19) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.6% | $6.46 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.6% | $7.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.6% | $9.19 |
Current Price
$41.59
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$7.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LIF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $16.4M · 0.08B shares · net cash $183.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.70
-81.5% vs $41.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $8.90 | $9.41 | $10.02 | $10.76 | $11.69 |
| 8.6% | $7.89 | $8.25 | $8.67 | $9.16 | $9.75 |
| 9.6% | $7.13 | $7.40 | $7.70 | $8.05 | $8.45 |
| 10.6% | $6.55 | $6.75 | $6.97 | $7.23 | $7.52 |
| 11.6% | $6.08 | $6.24 | $6.41 | $6.60 | $6.82 |
