Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LFST
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor LifeStance Health Group, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.2% | $1.61 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.2% | $2.02 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.2% | $2.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $16.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.12
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$2.02
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LFST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $29.6M · 0.39B shares · net cash $54.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.02
-83.3% vs $12.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $2.40 | $2.56 | $2.74 | $2.96 | $3.22 |
| 9.2% | $2.08 | $2.20 | $2.33 | $2.47 | $2.65 |
| 10.2% | $1.84 | $1.92 | $2.02 | $2.13 | $2.25 |
| 11.2% | $1.65 | $1.71 | $1.78 | $1.87 | $1.96 |
| 12.2% | $1.49 | $1.54 | $1.60 | $1.66 | $1.73 |
