TGM's two-stage DCF values Lennar Corporation (LEN) between $111.14 and $185.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $142.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$86.46 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 12.0% | $111.14 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 11.0% | $142.46 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 10.0% | $185.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $138.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$86.46
Market-Implied Growth
-5.4%/yr
vs +6.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$111.14 – $185.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.25B shares · net debt $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$142.46
+64.8% vs $86.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $86.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $169 | $179 | $190 | $204 | $220 |
| 10.0% | $147 | $155 | $163 | $173 | $184 |
| 11.0% | $130 | $136 | $142 | $150 | $158 |
| 12.0% | $117 | $121 | $126 | $132 | $138 |
| 13.0% | $105 | $109 | $113 | $117 | $122 |
