TGM's two-stage DCF values Karat Packaging Inc. (KRT) between $32.93 and $60.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $43.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$54.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.3%/yr | 9.2% | $32.93 |
| Base case | 9.3%/yr | 8.2% | $43.96 |
| Optimistic | 12.3%/yr | 7.2% | $60.79 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $65.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$54.67
Market-Implied Growth
+14.6%/yr
vs +9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.93 – $60.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KRT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $36.6M · 0.02B shares · net cash $2.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$43.96
-19.6% vs $54.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $54.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $55.54 | $61.26 | $68.53 | $78.05 | $91.10 |
| 7.2% | $45.49 | $49.17 | $53.62 | $59.13 | $66.13 |
| 8.2% | $38.46 | $40.99 | $43.96 | $47.51 | $51.80 |
| 9.2% | $33.26 | $35.09 | $37.20 | $39.64 | $42.51 |
| 10.2% | $29.27 | $30.64 | $32.20 | $33.97 | $36.00 |
