TGM's two-stage DCF values The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) between $24.83 and $58.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $36.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$27.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $24.83 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $36.11 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $58.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $25.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$27.62
Market-Implied Growth
-2.1%/yr
vs -4.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.83 – $58.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KHC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 1.19B shares · net debt $18.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$36.11
+30.7% vs $27.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $51.30 | $59.55 | $70.55 | $85.93 | $109 |
| 6.5% | $37.88 | $42.83 | $49.02 | $56.97 | $67.57 |
| 7.5% | $28.93 | $32.19 | $36.11 | $40.89 | $46.85 |
| 8.5% | $22.54 | $24.83 | $27.49 | $30.64 | $34.42 |
| 9.5% | $17.74 | $19.42 | $21.34 | $23.55 | $26.13 |
