Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KEYS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($122.36) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$318.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.7%/yr | 11.1% | $71.32 |
| Base case | 5.7%/yr | 10.1% | $92.55 |
| Optimistic | 8.7%/yr | 9.1% | $122.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $94.30 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$318.67
Market-Implied Growth
+37.2%/yr
vs +5.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$92.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KEYS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.17B shares · net debt $854.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$92.55
-71.0% vs $318.67
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $318.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $111 | $119 | $128 | $139 | $152 |
| 9.1% | $95.71 | $101 | $108 | $115 | $124 |
| 10.1% | $83.69 | $87.85 | $92.55 | $97.90 | $104 |
| 11.1% | $74.19 | $77.40 | $80.98 | $84.99 | $89.53 |
| 12.1% | $66.49 | $69.03 | $71.83 | $74.93 | $78.39 |
