Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KEQU
Even the conservative scenario ($102.78) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$34.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -17.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.0%/yr | 8.8% | $102.78 |
| Base case | 13.0%/yr | 7.8% | $140.20 |
| Optimistic | 16.0%/yr | 6.8% | $198.71 |
Current Price
$34.22
Market-Implied Growth
-17.8%/yr
vs +13.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$140.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KEQU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $13.7M · 0.00B shares · net debt $8.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$140.20
+309.8% vs $34.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $34.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $182 | $203 | $231 | $269 | $324 |
| 6.8% | $145 | $159 | $175 | $196 | $223 |
| 7.8% | $121 | $130 | $140 | $153 | $169 |
| 8.8% | $103 | $109 | $116 | $125 | $135 |
| 9.8% | $89.13 | $93.85 | $99.21 | $105 | $112 |
