TGM's two-stage DCF values Kelly Services, Inc. (KELYB) between $18.84 and $33.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $23.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.8% | $18.84 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.8% | $23.92 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.8% | $33.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.57
Market-Implied Growth
+0.8%/yr
vs -1.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$18.84 – $33.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KELYB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $38.6M · 0.02B shares · net debt $68.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$23.92
+5.9% vs $22.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $30.06 | $32.91 | $36.40 | $40.82 | $46.56 |
| 7.8% | $24.80 | $26.71 | $28.98 | $31.72 | $35.09 |
| 8.8% | $20.98 | $22.34 | $23.92 | $25.76 | $27.95 |
| 9.8% | $18.08 | $19.09 | $20.24 | $21.55 | $23.07 |
| 10.8% | $15.80 | $16.58 | $17.44 | $18.42 | $19.53 |
