TGM's two-stage DCF values Kimball Electronics, Inc. (KE) between $9.83 and $16.10 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $12.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$28.66 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.1% | $9.83 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 10.1% | $12.09 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 9.1% | $16.10 |
Current Price
$28.66
Market-Implied Growth
+22.7%/yr
vs +2.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$9.83 – $16.10
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $24.0M · 0.02B shares · net debt $27.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.09
-57.8% vs $28.66
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.66; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $14.58 | $15.60 | $16.79 | $18.22 | $19.96 |
| 9.1% | $12.50 | $13.24 | $14.08 | $15.06 | $16.22 |
| 10.1% | $10.91 | $11.46 | $12.09 | $12.79 | $13.61 |
| 11.1% | $9.65 | $10.08 | $10.55 | $11.08 | $11.69 |
| 12.1% | $8.63 | $8.97 | $9.34 | $9.75 | $10.21 |
