TGM's two-stage DCF values Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) between $42.37 and $60.93 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $48.78. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$44.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.2% | $42.37 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.2% | $48.78 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.2% | $60.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $47.40 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.80
Market-Implied Growth
-1.1%/yr
vs +2.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$42.37 – $60.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JOUT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.0M · 0.01B shares · net cash $176.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$48.78
+8.9% vs $44.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $56.89 | $60.91 | $66.00 | $72.67 | $81.82 |
| 7.2% | $49.85 | $52.43 | $55.56 | $59.43 | $64.33 |
| 8.2% | $44.91 | $46.69 | $48.78 | $51.27 | $54.29 |
| 9.2% | $41.25 | $42.54 | $44.03 | $45.74 | $47.76 |
| 10.2% | $38.44 | $39.41 | $40.51 | $41.75 | $43.18 |
