TGM's two-stage DCF values J-Long Group Limited (JL) between $2.34 and $4.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $3.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 8.5% | $2.34 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 7.5% | $3.07 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 6.5% | $4.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1.48 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.43
Market-Implied Growth
+22.4%/yr
vs +12.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.34 – $4.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $327227 · 0.00B shares · net cash $1.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.07
-30.8% vs $4.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $3.90 | $4.35 | $4.95 | $5.79 | $7.05 |
| 6.5% | $3.16 | $3.43 | $3.77 | $4.21 | $4.78 |
| 7.5% | $2.68 | $2.85 | $3.07 | $3.33 | $3.65 |
| 8.5% | $2.33 | $2.45 | $2.60 | $2.77 | $2.98 |
| 9.5% | $2.07 | $2.16 | $2.26 | $2.38 | $2.52 |
