TGM's two-stage DCF values J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF) between $85.32 and $161.25 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $114.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$78.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 8.5% | $85.32 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 7.5% | $114.54 |
| Optimistic | 12.2%/yr | 6.5% | $161.25 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $91.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$78.21
Market-Implied Growth
-0.3%/yr
vs +11.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$85.32 – $161.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JJSF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $74.9M · 0.02B shares · net cash $105.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$114.54
+46.5% vs $78.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $148 | $166 | $189 | $223 | $273 |
| 6.5% | $118 | $129 | $143 | $160 | $183 |
| 7.5% | $98.97 | $106 | $115 | $125 | $138 |
| 8.5% | $85.11 | $90.07 | $95.85 | $103 | $111 |
| 9.5% | $74.73 | $78.37 | $82.52 | $87.31 | $92.88 |