Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JCI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($25.34) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$143.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.6% | $11.00 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.6% | $16.12 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.6% | $25.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $30.31 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$143.52
Market-Implied Growth
+44.9%/yr
vs -4.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$16.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JCI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.61B shares · net debt $9.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$16.12
-88.8% vs $143.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $143.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $21.75 | $23.95 | $26.51 | $29.52 | $33.12 |
| 9.6% | $17.11 | $18.74 | $20.58 | $22.71 | $25.18 |
| 10.6% | $13.50 | $14.73 | $16.12 | $17.69 | $19.47 |
| 11.6% | $10.60 | $11.56 | $12.64 | $13.83 | $15.17 |
| 12.6% | $8.22 | $8.99 | $9.84 | $10.78 | $11.81 |
