TGM's two-stage DCF values John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) between $75.67 and $154.64 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $106.06. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$67.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.5%/yr | 8.5% | $75.67 |
| Base case | 6.5%/yr | 7.5% | $106.06 |
| Optimistic | 9.5%/yr | 6.5% | $154.64 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $126.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$67.64
Market-Implied Growth
-3.0%/yr
vs +6.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$75.67 – $154.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBSS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $54.6M · 0.01B shares · net debt $87.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$106.06
+56.8% vs $67.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $67.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $140 | $159 | $183 | $218 | $269 |
| 6.5% | $110 | $121 | $135 | $153 | $177 |
| 7.5% | $89.99 | $97.30 | $106 | $117 | $130 |
| 8.5% | $75.70 | $80.82 | $86.79 | $93.83 | $102 |
| 9.5% | $64.99 | $68.75 | $73.03 | $77.97 | $83.73 |