TGM's two-stage DCF values Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) between $93.65 and $184.42 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $130.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$268.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +19.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.9%/yr | 10.1% | $93.65 |
| Base case | 3.9%/yr | 9.1% | $130.59 |
| Optimistic | 6.9%/yr | 8.1% | $184.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $197.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$268.69
Market-Implied Growth
+19.4%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$93.65 – $184.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ITW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.8B · 0.29B shares · net debt $8.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$130.59
-51.4% vs $268.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $268.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $166 | $181 | $200 | $224 | $254 |
| 8.1% | $136 | $147 | $159 | $174 | $193 |
| 9.1% | $114 | $122 | $131 | $141 | $153 |
| 10.1% | $97.15 | $103 | $110 | $117 | $126 |
| 11.1% | $83.88 | $88.36 | $93.36 | $98.97 | $105 |
