TGM's two-stage DCF values Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN) between $64.72 and $115.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $84.93. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$52.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.5%/yr | 9.1% | $64.72 |
| Base case | 10.5%/yr | 8.1% | $84.93 |
| Optimistic | 13.5%/yr | 7.1% | $115.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $66.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$52.53
Market-Implied Growth
-1.9%/yr
vs +12.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$64.72 – $115.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ITRN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $61.8M · 0.02B shares · net cash $107.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$84.93
+61.7% vs $52.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $52.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $106 | $117 | $131 | $149 | $174 |
| 7.1% | $87.72 | $94.57 | $103 | $113 | $126 |
| 8.1% | $74.71 | $79.40 | $84.93 | $91.53 | $99.56 |
| 9.1% | $65.14 | $68.53 | $72.42 | $76.94 | $82.26 |
| 10.1% | $57.82 | $60.35 | $63.22 | $66.48 | $70.23 |