TGM's two-stage DCF values Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) between $25.40 and $58.67 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.71. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$50.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.4%/yr | 9.5% | $25.40 |
| Base case | 6.4%/yr | 8.5% | $38.71 |
| Optimistic | 9.4%/yr | 7.5% | $58.67 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 14, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $105.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$50.20
Market-Implied Growth
+11.0%/yr
vs +4.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$25.40 – $58.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IRDM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $286.6M · 0.11B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.71
-22.9% vs $50.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $50.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $52.12 | $58.53 | $66.52 | $76.80 | $90.48 |
| 7.5% | $40.56 | $44.78 | $49.83 | $56.00 | $63.70 |
| 8.5% | $32.32 | $35.27 | $38.71 | $42.78 | $47.65 |
| 9.5% | $26.14 | $28.31 | $30.78 | $33.63 | $36.95 |
| 10.5% | $21.34 | $22.99 | $24.84 | $26.93 | $29.31 |
