TGM's two-stage DCF values Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP) between $42.28 and $75.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $56.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$69.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.7% | $42.28 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.7% | $56.21 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.7% | $75.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $140.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$69.97
Market-Implied Growth
+23.9%/yr
vs +38.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$42.28 – $75.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for INSP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $40.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $104.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$56.21
-19.7% vs $69.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $72.08 | $80.43 | $91.38 | $106 | $128 |
| 6.7% | $58.14 | $63.26 | $69.59 | $77.62 | $88.15 |
| 7.7% | $48.74 | $52.15 | $56.21 | $61.13 | $67.22 |
| 8.7% | $41.97 | $44.38 | $47.18 | $50.46 | $54.37 |
| 9.7% | $36.88 | $38.66 | $40.68 | $43.00 | $45.69 |
