Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ILMN
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($45.85) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$273.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.3% | $27.93 |
| Base case | 3.0%/yr | 11.3% | $35.18 |
| Optimistic | 6.0%/yr | 10.3% | $45.85 |
Current Price
$273.04
Market-Implied Growth
+57.1%/yr
vs +1.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$35.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ILMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $496.0M · 0.15B shares · net debt $571.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$35.18
-87.1% vs $273.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $273.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $41.58 | $43.96 | $46.68 | $49.82 | $53.51 |
| 10.3% | $36.38 | $38.17 | $40.19 | $42.48 | $45.11 |
| 11.3% | $32.24 | $33.63 | $35.18 | $36.91 | $38.86 |
| 12.3% | $28.86 | $29.97 | $31.19 | $32.53 | $34.03 |
| 13.3% | $26.07 | $26.96 | $27.94 | $29.01 | $30.18 |
