TGM's two-stage DCF values ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR) between $203.03 and $350.53 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $270.76. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$162.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.1% | $203.03 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.1% | $270.76 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.1% | $350.53 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $182.38 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$162.05
Market-Implied Growth
+6.9%/yr
vs +22.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$203.03 – $350.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ICLR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $941.2M · 0.08B shares · net debt $2.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$270.76
+67.1% vs $162.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $162.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $334 | $360 | $391 | $427 | $471 |
| 9.1% | $281 | $300 | $321 | $346 | $376 |
| 10.1% | $241 | $255 | $271 | $289 | $309 |
| 11.1% | $209 | $220 | $232 | $245 | $261 |
| 12.1% | $184 | $192 | $201 | $212 | $223 |
