Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ICHR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($1.77) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $0.94 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $1.24 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $1.77 |
Current Price
$55.77
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ICHR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.1M · 0.03B shares · net debt $25.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.24
-97.8% vs $55.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $55.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $1.55 | $1.67 | $1.80 | $1.95 | $2.12 |
| 10.5% | $1.30 | $1.39 | $1.48 | $1.59 | $1.72 |
| 11.5% | $1.10 | $1.16 | $1.24 | $1.32 | $1.42 |
| 12.5% | $0.93 | $0.98 | $1.04 | $1.11 | $1.18 |
| 13.5% | $0.79 | $0.84 | $0.88 | $0.94 | $0.99 |
