TGM's two-stage DCF values Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN) between $76.25 and $153.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $106.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$132.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.2%/yr | 9.0% | $76.25 |
| Base case | 15.2%/yr | 8.0% | $106.66 |
| Optimistic | 18.2%/yr | 7.0% | $153.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $158.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$132.25
Market-Implied Growth
+20.1%/yr
vs +18.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$76.25 – $153.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HWKN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $78.0M · 0.02B shares · net debt $240.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$106.66
-19.3% vs $132.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $132.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $140 | $157 | $178 | $207 | $247 |
| 7.0% | $111 | $122 | $134 | $151 | $171 |
| 8.0% | $90.92 | $98.14 | $107 | $117 | $129 |
| 9.0% | $76.30 | $81.47 | $87.44 | $94.39 | $103 |
| 10.0% | $65.16 | $69.02 | $73.39 | $78.38 | $84.13 |
