TGM's two-stage DCF values Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) between $32.40 and $52.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $39.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$28.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.0% | $32.40 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.0% | $39.54 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.0% | $52.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$28.51
Market-Implied Growth
-5.3%/yr
vs -5.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.40 – $52.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HUBG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $191.3M · 0.06B shares · net debt $166.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$39.54
+38.7% vs $28.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $47.62 | $50.94 | $54.86 | $59.56 | $65.30 |
| 9.0% | $40.88 | $43.27 | $46.02 | $49.23 | $53.01 |
| 10.0% | $35.73 | $37.52 | $39.54 | $41.85 | $44.50 |
| 11.0% | $31.67 | $33.05 | $34.58 | $36.31 | $38.26 |
| 12.0% | $28.38 | $29.47 | $30.67 | $32.00 | $33.48 |
