TGM's two-stage DCF values The Hershey Company (HSY) between $141.59 and $297.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $201.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$175.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.6%/yr | 8.5% | $141.59 |
| Base case | 7.6%/yr | 7.5% | $201.49 |
| Optimistic | 10.6%/yr | 6.5% | $297.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $379.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$175.05
Market-Implied Growth
+4.6%/yr
vs +7.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$141.59 – $297.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HSY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.20B shares · net debt $4.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$201.49
+15.1% vs $175.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $175.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $269 | $305 | $354 | $422 | $525 |
| 6.5% | $209 | $231 | $259 | $294 | $341 |
| 7.5% | $170 | $184 | $201 | $223 | $249 |
| 8.5% | $141 | $152 | $163 | $177 | $194 |
| 9.5% | $120 | $128 | $136 | $146 | $157 |
