Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HRB
Even the conservative scenario ($154.72) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$41.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -17.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $154.72 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $213.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $295.02 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $113.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.51
Market-Implied Growth
-17.8%/yr
vs +25.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$213.50
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HRB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $704.7M · 0.13B shares · net debt $532.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$213.50
+414.3% vs $41.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $282 | $319 | $369 | $438 | $541 |
| 6.5% | $222 | $244 | $272 | $307 | $355 |
| 7.5% | $181 | $196 | $214 | $235 | $262 |
| 8.5% | $153 | $163 | $175 | $189 | $206 |
| 9.5% | $131 | $139 | $147 | $157 | $169 |
