Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)'s fair value in a range of $9.44 – $308.38 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $39.39 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $39.39, the market is pricing in roughly +14.7%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -2.3%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$39.39
Fair-Value Range
$9.44 – $308.38
Market-Implied Growth
+14.7%/yr
vs -2.3% 5Y actual
HP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $176.4M · 0.10B shares · net debt $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$9.44
-76.0% vs $39.39
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $39.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $16.47 | $18.32 | $20.50 | $23.11 | $26.31 |
| 9.0% | $11.39 | $12.65 | $14.11 | $15.81 | $17.82 |
| 10.0% | $7.53 | $8.42 | $9.44 | $10.60 | $11.94 |
| 11.0% | $4.49 | $5.14 | $5.88 | $6.71 | $7.64 |
| 12.0% | $2.04 | $2.53 | $3.08 | $3.68 | $4.36 |
About Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
Helmerich & Payne, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, provides specialized drilling services and innovative solutions to businesses involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The company's operations are strategically organized into three distinct divisions: North America Solutions, Offshore Gulf of Mexico, and International Solutions. Within the North America Solutions segment, primary drilling activities are conducted across a broad geographical area, encompassing U.S. states such as Colorado, Louisiana, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. This division also actively pursues the development, promotion, and commercialization of advanced technologies designed to enhance drilling efficiency, wellbore quality, and accurate placement. The Offshore Gulf of Mexico segment focuses its drilling endeavors in Louisiana and within the federal waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Internationally, the Solutions segment manages drilling projects in various countries, including Argentina, Bahrain, Colombia, and the United Arab Emirates. As of September 30, 2021, Helmerich & Payne commanded a substantial fleet, featuring 236 land rigs situated in North America, 30 land rigs operating internationally, and 7 offshore platform rigs. Beyond its core drilling operations, the company also maintains an interest in commercial real estate. Its property portfolio in Tulsa, Oklahoma, comprises a shopping center offering approximately 390,000 square feet of leasable space, alongside about 176 acres of undeveloped land. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. was founded in 1920 and continues to maintain its corporate headquarters in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Drilling
- CEO
- Raymond John Adams