TGM's two-stage DCF values Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. PFD DEP1/1000A (HOVNP) between $8.48 and $19.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $12.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$18.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $8.48 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $12.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $19.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $257.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.03
Market-Implied Growth
+9.2%/yr
vs -10.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.48 – $19.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HOVNP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $121.5M · 0.15B shares · net debt $657.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.08
-33.0% vs $18.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $16.94 | $19.57 | $23.08 | $28.00 | $35.36 |
| 6.5% | $12.65 | $14.23 | $16.21 | $18.75 | $22.13 |
| 7.5% | $9.79 | $10.83 | $12.08 | $13.61 | $15.52 |
| 8.5% | $7.75 | $8.48 | $9.33 | $10.34 | $11.54 |
| 9.5% | $6.22 | $6.75 | $7.37 | $8.07 | $8.90 |
