Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HNRG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($5.54) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$14.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.1%/yr | 8.5% | $2.55 |
| Base case | 14.1%/yr | 7.5% | $3.70 |
| Optimistic | 17.1%/yr | 6.5% | $5.54 |
Current Price
$14.34
Market-Implied Growth
+46.8%/yr
vs +14.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$3.70
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HNRG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.0M · 0.05B shares · net debt $27.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.70
-74.2% vs $14.34
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $5.03 | $5.75 | $6.71 | $8.05 | $10.06 |
| 6.5% | $3.86 | $4.29 | $4.83 | $5.52 | $6.44 |
| 7.5% | $3.08 | $3.36 | $3.70 | $4.12 | $4.64 |
| 8.5% | $2.52 | $2.72 | $2.95 | $3.23 | $3.55 |
| 9.5% | $2.11 | $2.26 | $2.42 | $2.61 | $2.84 |
