Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HMR
Even the conservative scenario ($5.60) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $5.60 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $7.56 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $10.27 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $41.80 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.72
Market-Implied Growth
-19.5%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$7.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HMR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.9M · 0.06B shares · net cash $18.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$7.56
+340.6% vs $1.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $9.83 | $11.07 | $12.71 | $15.01 | $18.46 |
| 6.5% | $7.82 | $8.56 | $9.49 | $10.67 | $12.25 |
| 7.5% | $6.49 | $6.97 | $7.56 | $8.27 | $9.16 |
| 8.5% | $5.54 | $5.88 | $6.27 | $6.74 | $7.30 |
| 9.5% | $4.83 | $5.08 | $5.36 | $5.69 | $6.07 |
