TGM's two-stage DCF values Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) between $0.80 and $3.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $1.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$7.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.1%/yr | 12.0% | $0.80 |
| Base case | 8.1%/yr | 11.0% | $1.97 |
| Optimistic | 11.1%/yr | 10.0% | $3.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $14.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$7.11
Market-Implied Growth
+25.0%/yr
vs +8.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$0.80 – $3.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HLMN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $73.8M · 0.20B shares · net debt $723.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.97
-72.2% vs $7.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $2.97 | $3.35 | $3.78 | $4.29 | $4.89 |
| 10.0% | $2.16 | $2.44 | $2.76 | $3.12 | $3.54 |
| 11.0% | $1.51 | $1.73 | $1.97 | $2.25 | $2.55 |
| 12.0% | $0.99 | $1.17 | $1.36 | $1.57 | $1.80 |
| 13.0% | $0.57 | $0.71 | $0.86 | $1.02 | $1.21 |
