Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HGBL
Even the conservative scenario ($4.84) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.4%/yr | 8.5% | $4.84 |
| Base case | 11.4%/yr | 7.5% | $6.44 |
| Optimistic | 14.4%/yr | 6.5% | $9.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $8.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.30
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$6.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HGBL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.9M · 0.03B shares · net cash $16.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.44
+395.5% vs $1.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $8.27 | $9.26 | $10.59 | $12.44 | $15.21 |
| 6.5% | $6.66 | $7.25 | $7.99 | $8.95 | $10.22 |
| 7.5% | $5.58 | $5.97 | $6.44 | $7.01 | $7.73 |
| 8.5% | $4.81 | $5.09 | $5.41 | $5.79 | $6.24 |
| 9.5% | $4.24 | $4.44 | $4.67 | $4.94 | $5.24 |
