TGM's two-stage DCF values HF Foods Group Inc. (HFFG) between $0.93 and $4.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $2.35. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$1.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.3%/yr | 8.5% | $0.93 |
| Base case | 14.3%/yr | 7.5% | $2.35 |
| Optimistic | 17.3%/yr | 6.5% | $4.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1.29 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.59
Market-Implied Growth
+10.5%/yr
vs +14.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$0.93 – $4.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HFFG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.3M · 0.05B shares · net debt $155.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.35
+47.6% vs $1.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $3.98 | $4.86 | $6.03 | $7.68 | $10.14 |
| 6.5% | $2.54 | $3.07 | $3.73 | $4.58 | $5.71 |
| 7.5% | $1.58 | $1.93 | $2.35 | $2.86 | $3.49 |
| 8.5% | $0.90 | $1.15 | $1.43 | $1.76 | $2.17 |
| 9.5% | $0.39 | $0.57 | $0.78 | $1.01 | $1.28 |