TGM's two-stage DCF values Hess Midstream LP (HESM) between $38.23 and $91.89 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $58.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$37.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.1%/yr | 8.5% | $38.23 |
| Base case | 7.1%/yr | 7.5% | $58.88 |
| Optimistic | 10.1%/yr | 6.5% | $91.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $38.30 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$37.80
Market-Implied Growth
-0.3%/yr
vs +6.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$38.23 – $91.89
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HESM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $638.5M · 0.21B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$58.88
+55.8% vs $37.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $37.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $82.08 | $94.68 | $111 | $135 | $170 |
| 6.5% | $61.59 | $69.14 | $78.58 | $90.71 | $107 |
| 7.5% | $47.94 | $52.91 | $58.88 | $66.16 | $75.25 |
| 8.5% | $38.21 | $41.69 | $45.75 | $50.55 | $56.30 |
| 9.5% | $30.92 | $33.47 | $36.39 | $39.75 | $43.67 |
