Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HDSN
Even the conservative scenario ($26.92) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.2%/yr | 9.0% | $26.92 |
| Base case | 10.2%/yr | 8.0% | $35.88 |
| Optimistic | 13.2%/yr | 7.0% | $49.70 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $16.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$5.26
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$35.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HDSN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $57.1M · 0.04B shares · net cash $39.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$35.88
+582.1% vs $5.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $5.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $45.49 | $50.37 | $56.63 | $64.97 | $76.64 |
| 7.0% | $37.11 | $40.18 | $43.94 | $48.63 | $54.66 |
| 8.0% | $31.31 | $33.40 | $35.88 | $38.84 | $42.46 |
| 9.0% | $27.07 | $28.57 | $30.30 | $32.32 | $34.70 |
| 10.0% | $23.84 | $24.96 | $26.23 | $27.68 | $29.35 |
