TGM's two-stage DCF values Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) between $8.54 and $13.35 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $10.25. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$21.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.2% | $8.54 |
| Base case | 2.3%/yr | 8.2% | $10.25 |
| Optimistic | 5.3%/yr | 7.2% | $13.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $13.72 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$21.25
Market-Implied Growth
+23.3%/yr
vs -8.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.54 – $13.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HCSG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $31.3M · 0.07B shares · net cash $146.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$10.25
-51.7% vs $21.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $21.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $12.32 | $13.34 | $14.64 | $16.34 | $18.67 |
| 7.2% | $10.53 | $11.18 | $11.98 | $12.97 | $14.22 |
| 8.2% | $9.27 | $9.72 | $10.25 | $10.89 | $11.66 |
| 9.2% | $8.34 | $8.67 | $9.04 | $9.48 | $9.99 |
| 10.2% | $7.62 | $7.87 | $8.15 | $8.46 | $8.83 |
