A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Harvard Bioscience, Inc. (HBIO) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$8.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $0.03 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $1.75 |
Current Price
$8.53
Market-Implied Growth
+24.0%/yr
vs -4.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HBIO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6M · 0.00B shares · net debt $28.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$0.03
-99.7% vs $8.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $1.05 | $1.42 | $1.85 | $2.34 | $2.91 |
| 10.5% | $0.22 | $0.51 | $0.82 | $1.19 | $1.60 |
| 11.5% | N/A | N/A | $0.03 | $0.30 | $0.61 |
| 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
