Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for H
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Hyatt Hotels Corporation right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$197.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.7% | $49.62 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.7% | $73.76 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.7% | $101.53 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $292.40 | |
Current Price
$197.68
Market-Implied Growth
+38.1%/yr
vs +65.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$73.76
model output — not a price target
H DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for H (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $469.5M · 0.10B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$148.55
-24.9% vs $197.68
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $197.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $198 | $211 | $226 | $243 | $263 |
| 9.7% | $162 | $171 | $181 | $193 | $207 |
| 10.7% | $135 | $141 | $149 | $157 | $166 |
| 11.7% | $113 | $118 | $123 | $129 | $136 |
| 12.7% | $95.32 | $99.00 | $103 | $107 | $112 |
About Hyatt Hotels Corporation
Hyatt Hotels Corporation functions as an international hospitality firm, managing a diverse portfolio of properties across the United States and numerous global markets. Its operational structure encompasses Owned and Leased Hotels, along with regional management and franchising divisions for the Americas, Asia-Pacific (ASPAC), and Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Southwest Asia (EAME/SW Asia), complemented by the Apple Leisure Group. The company actively manages, franchises, licenses, owns, and leases an extensive array of accommodations, ranging from full-service and select-service hotels to resorts, timeshares, fractional ownerships, residential, vacation, and condominium units. Hyatt boasts a wide collection of brands, including Park Hyatt, Miraval, Grand Hyatt, Alila, Andaz, The Unbound Collection by Hyatt, Destination, Hyatt Regency, Hyatt, Thompson Hotels, Hyatt Centric, Joie de Vivre, Caption by Hyatt, Hyatt House, Hyatt Place, Hyatt Ziva, Hyatt Zilara, UrCove, Hyatt Residence Club, Hyatt Residences, Hyatt Resorts, Secrets Resorts & Spas, Dreams Resorts & Spas, Breathless Resorts & Spas, Zoetry Wellness & Spa Resorts, Alua Hotels & Resorts, and Sunscape Resorts & Spas. As of March 31, 2022, Hyatt's global presence comprised roughly 540 hotels, offering a total of approximately 113,000 rooms. The corporation serves a broad spectrum of guests, from corporate clients and various associations (including national, state, regional, social, governmental, military, educational, religious, and fraternal organizations) to travel agencies, luxury travel organizations, and individual consumers. Additionally, Hyatt operates the "World of Hyatt" loyalty program, enabling members to earn and redeem points for hotel stays and other rewards. Founded in 1957, Hyatt Hotels Corporation maintains its headquarters in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Lodging
- CEO
- Mark Samuel Hoplamazian