TGM's two-stage DCF values Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) between $17.91 and $35.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $24.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.2% | $17.91 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.2% | $24.14 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.2% | $35.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$26.09
Market-Implied Growth
+3.4%/yr
vs +0.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.91 – $35.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $329.0M · 0.19B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.14
-7.5% vs $26.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $32.02 | $35.93 | $40.88 | $47.37 | $56.26 |
| 7.2% | $25.18 | $27.69 | $30.73 | $34.49 | $39.26 |
| 8.2% | $20.37 | $22.11 | $24.14 | $26.56 | $29.49 |
| 9.2% | $16.82 | $18.07 | $19.52 | $21.19 | $23.15 |
| 10.2% | $14.08 | $15.03 | $16.09 | $17.30 | $18.70 |
